Common Spotted Orchid Count at 28th May

Every year I do a count at this date and the year on year results are puzzling but I guess must be explicable through weather or climate effects. The point is that the count does not seem to be a reliable predictor of the final count. The graph shows that in three of the last six years (2018,2019,2022) the count at 28th May was exactly 33% of the final count. However in 2021 it was 61% and in 2020 it was 73%. This year feels much more like a 2020 year or perhaps an even 'worse' year as the appearance of new Common Spotteds has almost dried up over the last ten days or so. However maybe some rain would change the position as we have had a prolonged dry spell. So the total for this year at 28th May is 369 spikes. What we end up with is anyone's guess at the moment.