Common Spotted Orchids at 28th May

For comparison purposes I keep a note of how many Spotted Orchids (almost all Common Spotted Orchids) I've recorded by 28th May. Looking at the figures just leaves me puzzled. The percentage of orchids re corded by 28th May varies as a percentage of the final figure between 33% and 73%! This years total of 280 orchids could lead to a final figure on that basis of anywhere between 384 and 848 so not much good as a predictor. However it looks likely that we will beat last years dismal 312 orchids (including other species) but not match 2023s total of 945 orchids. There is also no pattern of the variation over time with the fields. I can only think that thyere is a pattern in the way orchid populations wax and wane that is separate to othyer factors such as weather/climate, predation by rabbits/deer etc.